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Follow the Ram: Evergreen Solar


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By Jack Rothstein
Follow the Ram, Fall '05
Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR)

Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq: ESLR) is the best performing stock that I am involved in this year. It’s all about performance isn’t it? Isn’t that what you are looking for? ESLR was and still is a choice I made at the start of the year and I am delighted in its performance. The stock is up over 90% thus far. The focus is always to achieve an absolute return. ESLR provided a stunning return this year and is up over 180% in the last 52 weeks. It is a play on energy. It is an alternative solution to the high cost of natural gas, oil and electricity. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out. It’s a play on the rising cost of fossil fuels.

The stock has performed well over the course of the last year and is still in great shape technically. The chart really tells the story doesn’t it? When you stare at its chart whether it be long term or short term the price pattern expresses a stock that is clearly in a solid advance. That is what investing is all about. The ability to recognize a rising pattern and execute a trade to exploit the favorable odds to gain. The stock can be played right now with a toe in the water. A toe in the water is a small position that does nothing more then force you to watch it. Always pay attention never neglecting even the smallest position. When the stock comes in if it does do that then buy more adding to the position. The ideal price to aggressively go after ESLR is in the 8 zone. Oil has to take a hit, a hard hit, and ESLR will come in to that attractive zone.

Short term the stock is slightly negative. The price of oil has come in and so has ESLR. It is off its peak made on 10/3 at $9.65. A drop near $8 and it is compelling. It is at that price the risk is low and better to manage. Take a look at the 50-day line if it is a swing you are looking for and notice where that key inflection point is currently. It is at $7.71. The 10- day line is $8.58. The stock trades below that line and that means it is short term negative and that favors a short-term drop. The move south down near 8 is a chance to buy it far closer to its intermediate term line of support. Long-term players are looking at a stock that is currently extended.

The good news about ESLR is that it is in a secular bullish environment that offers the likelihood of long-term gains. If you back test many of the primary technical indicators that determine the efficacy of any stock over the last year indications clearly tell that the best strategy to take concerning involvement is buy and hold. That is the gist of it. The best course of action to take regarding ESLR is to buy and hold it.

Place a toe in the water. Buy more coming in to $8. Buy it aggressively above $9.70 on a close and put metal to petal if it should scale 10. There is no top in formation at this time. It is in a mature advance so it pays to be cautious. Swing traders can use $7.69 to stop the loss. Short term traders ought to wait for a close above $8.60 to get involved and long term investors ought to place the stop at $6.49. ESLR has been one of the best performing stocks over the last year and all indications are that the advance will persist. ESLR is a winner. Get involved.

This Article is from the Fall 2005 Top 10 Special Report. Get the latest stock recommendations from other top financial experts today!  Request your FREE copy of the newest report from NewsletterAdvisors.com.  Click here.